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    current location:home > News Center > 業界動態
    [headlines] the first full price reduction letter appeared in the market in September.
    Price reduction! Price reduction! August did not wait for the peak season, September still did not come! Environmental supervision led to a decline in the rate of start-up, finished paper prices are not calm, can not hold the cardboard factory had to reduce prices for customers to make profits! This year is really a wonderful year, finished paper prices abnormal, peak season cardboard does not rise but fall! In the fourth quarter, the corrugated paper market was unspeakably optimistic, with paper prices expected to fluctuate in the range of 4000-4500 yuan / ton. This year, small and medium-sized paper mills are facing elimination, and secondary mills will enter the period of industry integration.

    In September, the first price reduction letter, Paperboard Factory overall price reduction.

    In August, the market gradually entered the peak of the second half of the year. Upstream packaging paper mills rose in the early part of the month, but prices of finished paper fell steadily due to waste paper prices; downstream demand for packaging paper improved slightly in mid-August, with a slight rise, but still not a climate. According to past practice, paper mills will rally in late August and early September. But this year is different from previous years, even in early September, the demand for corrugated boards and paperboards has not improved significantly, paper mills inventory pressure on the high side, but the demand is weak prices can not see a pick-up.

    In the economic environment of shrinking demand, downstream cardboard mills have to bear their own burden - price reduction! Price reduction! Price reduction! You heard right, September 3, Zhejiang Taizhou Songcai Packaging Co., Ltd. issued a price reduction letter, announced that from 7:00 on September 4, all the box B-corrugated E-corrugated F-corrugated on the basis of August 17 price reduction of 0.05 yuan/ Square price, towing processing decreased by 0.02 to 0.18 yuan / square price.

    On August 24, Zhejiang Wenzhou Dongmu Paper Co., Ltd. also announced price cuts: due to a drop in the price of base paper, the price of medium tiles per square was reduced by 0.10 yuan, thin tiles per square by 0.13 yuan, micro tiles per square by 0.13 yuan, and open paper per square by 0.06 yuan.

    Why does not the cardboard rise or fall in the peak season?

    Why did the price of cardboard fall abnormally in the peak season? It was mainly caused by the abnormal fluctuation of the price of corrugated paper this year. The average price of corrugated paper in August was 4 571 yuan / ton, 3.91% lower than the previous month and 7.49% higher than the previous month, and 17.00% higher than the average monthly price of 3907 yuan / ton in January, the highest price in May. Point 4936 yuan / ton slipped 7.39%.

    Analysis of price fluctuation

    1, the policy of external elimination is stricter.

    On May 2, the General Administration of Customs issued a special document "Notice of Customs Administration on Risk Early Warning and Supervision Measures for Importing American Waste Raw Materials", which caused a huge wave in the corrugated paper market. The price of corrugated paper rose by more than 1000 yuan/ton in the first ten days only. Far higher than expected, but also ahead of schedule overdraft of some of the later orders, resulting in a weak market.

    Up to now, the total nuclear quantity of imported waste paper in 2018 is 14.328 million tons, down 49% from the previous year. Most of the nuclear quantities are in the hands of large-scale paper enterprises, with the advantage of raw material cost, the paper prices of individual bases of paper enterprises in large-scale are adjusted to lower than those of the surrounding small and medium-sized paper enterprises. From 12:01 noon on August 23, China imposed an additional 25.5% levy on US waste. The tariff of 50% is beneficial to the rise of the national waste price, which forms a favorable cost support to the price of corrugated paper. However, the high cost can not be smoothly transmitted to the downstream due to the weak demand, and the cost support evolves into the cost pressure of paper enterprises.

    2, the reduction of domestic exports will indirectly affect the demand for corrugated paper.

    Domestic export trade has shrunk this year, packaging companies that make major export orders have suffered heavy losses, and orders have fallen sharply, making it difficult to guarantee the start-up of production lines. According to Zhuo Chuang's survey data, the average opening rate of cardboard mills is only about 60%. It is very common that underproduction occurs, thus reducing the demand for corrugated paper.

    3, the number of imported base paper increased significantly.

    According to customs data, the import volume of corrugated paper in January-July 2018 reached 603,500 tons, up 122.9% from the same period last year. Imported corrugated paper with the advantage of good quality and low price flooded into China, which has a great impact on the domestic supply of goods, making the original. Over-high inventory pressure on paper enterprises worsened the situation, but also made many paper enterprises to strive for customer resources to fight a price war.

    4, the downstream purchasing mentality tends to be rational.

    Due to the sharp rise and fall of paper prices in the past two years, the downstream will make corresponding analysis and judgment on the future market when facing the above situation, purchasing will be appropriate according to their own situation, no longer blindly reserve a large number of raw paper inventory. This leads to the paper enterprises inventory pressure is difficult to shift downward, supply pressure is high. Under the circumstances, the rise in paper prices is insufficient.

    Some small and medium-sized paper mills are facing elimination, and the two stage factories are entering the integration period.

    1. Industry concentration: the overall supply of raw materials and waste paper is expected to tighten, the possibility of a sharp decline in prices is small. However, there is no sign of improvement in downstream demand, the pressure of paper enterprises shutdown will increase, coupled with the dual impact of cost-side pressure, some small and medium-sized enterprises will be eliminated, the cost advantage of large-scale enterprises highlights, industry concentration. The degree will continue to improve.

    2. Second-class factory enters the period of industry integration: due to the boom of packaging paper industry in the past two years, the rapid expansion of the downstream second-class factory and the continuous release of new production capacity, but after entering 2018, the market demand has shrunk, and the contradiction between supply and demand has led to the second-class factory enters the period of industry integration again.

    3. Finding low-cost substitutes: Although the corrugated paper market is in a weak state of operation, due to the high cost of raw materials, paper prices are less likely to fall sharply in the short term.

    4. New capacity delayed or stranded: due to the cooling of corrugated paper market, the profit space of paper enterprises compressed, resulting in the new capacity of the corrugated paper industry will be delayed or stranded.

    In the four quarter, the market is hard to say, and it is expected that tile paper will be in the range of 4000-4500 yuan / ton.

    Zhuo Chuang analysis, the current supply pressure of corrugated paper market, the majority of paper enterprises in high inventory. On the one hand, the downstream demand is affected by the decline in national economic growth, terminal consumption enthusiasm is not high, packaging paper consumption is limited; on the other hand, the decline in export orders, indirectly affecting the release of demand for corrugated paper.

    In addition, some paper companies still have new capacity plans, so although the fourth quarter is the traditional market demand season, but affected by the accumulation of supply and demand contradictions, Zhuochang anticipates that the corrugated paper market in the fourth quarter is unspeakably optimistic, paper prices or to maintain range shocks mainly, of which November-December does not rule out the possibility of a decline, but because of raw materials used yellow paper prices will remain. At a high level, paper prices are expected to fluctuate between 4,000 and 4,500 yuan per ton, with a limited decline in paper prices supported by cost pressures from paper companies.

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